Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that divided the country and triggered disorder, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the political, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in universities but hardly any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Each writes two essays that strive for objectivity in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover national emblems, levies, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," stated the writer. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate say they favour unification but oppose increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his generation is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a negligent official who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified points, he said. "One side will prevail here and somebody will eventually lose but each side has got important lessons to learn from the opposing positions."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster must engage with the debate, said the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
